🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|