How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.